Most Overrated & Underrated
Exploring the most overrated and underrated players based on ADP by position.
Prior to each season and every fantasy draft, a practice that I've gotten accustomed to is valuing each player. With my system, I'm generally able to get a feel for which players will be on my team and which players I will never see in my lineup. Using ADP as a guide, it's pretty easy to say, "No way I'm taking Aaron Rodgers that high in the draft," or "How is this guy going so low?" Shaping your fantasy roster comes down to personal preference and statistic based intuition that most owners use as a guide to selecting players. What I've decided to do is make a list of two players at each position. One that I feel is overrated based on their positional ADP, and one I feel is underrated.
Quarterback (Overrated)
Jameis Winston: A trendy name for drafts this time of year, I believe Winston will be over drafted in most leagues based on his ADP. Being selected, on average, 8th among QB's, that would assume that he jumps 8 other QB's that finished ahead of his last year. Personally, I would be more comfortable drafting him in the 12th-13th QB off the board (Low end QB1 high end QB2). If you look purely at his situation, the addition of OJ Howard and Desean Jackson do provide nice targets to add more dynamics to a Mike Evans focused passing attack. That being said, I don't believe the TB coaching staff have full confidence in him yet with her propensity to turn the ball over at a fairly high rate (2nd most INT's in NFL last year).
Quarterback (Underrated)
Derek Carr: Coming off an MVP caliber season cut short by injury, I think Carr is primed to continue his jump to elite status. Being taken as the 11th QB off the board, I think Carr could return top 5-7 production. In addition to the solid tandem on the outside of Cooper and Crabtree, they have added Jared Cook who should stretch the middle of the field. Not only will this put more pressure on the defense with mismatches on Safeties and Linebackers, but should give more 1 on 1 match-ups on the outside. I think Carr could be a very nice find in the mid rounds of your draft after guys like Winston, Cousins and Mariota are gone.
Runningback (Overrated)
Jordan Howard: As a player, Jordan Howard has the makings of a top 10 player. He is a solid runner, good in the passing game, and every bit of an every down back. His skill set aside, his situation in Chicago is less than ideal for fantasy success. With the assumption John Fox isn't able to recreate the Adam Gase magic, I could see him having a Todd Gurley type sophomore season. The realistic expectation is that he will likely face a lot of stacked boxes leaving little room for him to run. Alongside that, their predicted poor QB play won't do him any favors in alleviating this. As a projected 1st round pick, I wouldn't feel overly comfortable taking him in this situation.
Runningback (Underrated)
LaGarrette Blount: Coming off a 1,000 yard season scoring 18 TDs, I find it very hard to believe he can repeat anything close to the same scoring production. That being said, I think being the 29th RB off the board is a little crazy to me. Outside of NE, Blount has been very disappointing topping 800 yards only once. I do, however, feel that the Philadelphia situation could play to his strengths taking over the goal line and early down work. The biggest factor this prediction will hing on is the health and role of Ryan Matthews. I would say it is realistic for Blount to sit between 700 and 800 yards with 10 -12 TDs.
Wide Receiver (Overrated)
Brandin Cooks/Dez Bryant: Brandin Cooks being traded from the unpredictable Saints offense to the even more unpredictable Patriots offense is a great NFL move, but fantasy question mark. Being the 15th WR off the board, he isn't a huge investment, but if you go RB in the first round you could be staring at him as your WR1. Assuming Gronk is healthy for the full year, I don't see him really breaking through as a huge producer in this offense. The Patriots haven't had a consistent outside WR since Moss and I don't know if it starts up again with Cooks. Along with Cooks, I didn't think this section would be complete without mentioning Dez Bryant. While Dez boasts elite talent, his early season matches are insanely difficult and could really limit him from showcasing his ability. I would try to pass on him and maybe look for a mid season trade from a frustrated owner.
Wide Receiver (Underrated)
Willie Snead: The biggest winner in the departure of Brandin Cooks from the Saints might just be Willie Snead. As the 33rd WR off the board, the assumption is that Michael Thomas will absorb most of Cooks' work with the Saints. Finishing as the 35th WR in standard scoring last season, I think Snead could take on a more prominent role opposite Thomas. If you recall, Snead was dealing with some injury issues last year that limited him fairly substantially for a portion of the season. I could see Snead coming in around the 22-26 mark come end of season.
Tight End (Overrated)
Hunter Henry: One of the most popular pickups last year at TE, Hunter Henry may see an increased role this year in the Chargers offense. With their HOF TE Gates in the twilight of his career, it would only stand to reason that Henry should take on more of the work. The biggest question mark with that whole situation is... Does Philip Rivers think so? After Gates came back last year, Henry all but disappeared as a viable option. With the addition of Mike Williams in the draft, the emergence of Tyrell Williams and looming return of Keenan Allen, I'm having a hard time seeing where he fits in. Buyer beware, this could be a very messy season in this offense for consistent production.
Tight End (Underrated)
Martellus Bennett: Coming in at 9th among TE's, I think Bennett has the opportunity to return top 5 value. In a heavy passing offense in Green Bay, you've seen a less talented Cooks become an integral piece of the Aaron Rodgers puzzle. Jumping from elite QB to elite QB, Bennett could be primed for another big season. Last season Bennett finished with 700 yards and and 7 TDs as the 7th best TE in standard scoring. Is it out of the realm of possibility that he improves those numbers on a team that has been known to give up points in bunches? In a spotty TE crop, I think Bennett could be a name to keep in mind after the first TE run completes.