Who I'm Buying - 7/12/2021
Christian Yelich
Lately, the only fireworks coming from Christian Yelich have been related to an ejection. On the surface, the walk rate and overall OBP are elite, but the BA and power are nowhere near what you expected investing in Yeli. A quick look at his savant page provides a great insight into what has been going on this season so far. Great plate approach, hard-hit rate, and exit velos. Now the ugly side... K% and whiff% are nowhere near what you want to see, and xBA/xSLG are not good. This speaks to one BIG issue... Overly passive approach. Even though the back injuries, spring speed maintained as well as max exit velo. A small tweak in approach could be the difference between the current iteration, and a massive breakout coming in the 2nd half. I would look to an uptick in 2021, but major returns in 2022. His current owner may see this as a downturn, a good time to buy.
Mookie Betts
Another OF that hasn't lived up to the draft-day price. A quick look at his savant page would tell a pretty quick story. Almost everything is in good shape with the exception of Barrel%. From my perspective, I think the down statistics are injury-related. The plate approach is excellent, and the underlying metrics really aren't that far off. I'm seeing a lower max exit velo, which could be limited by the injury. I'd be buying over the AS break if possible because we could see a monster 2nd half.
Shane McClanahan
The eye test is key here. Watching McClanahan, he has all the makings of a mid to front-end starter. As much as the growing pains will be frustrating, and the limited innings/start can sting, this is the profile you look for in a breakout. He's doing exactly what I wanted to see from year 1 and think it's trending in the exact direction I'd like. If the eye test isn't good enough for you, his ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP, and all following the narrative. I see the stuff playing the way I want it to, and this being more of a case of learning how to succeed at the highest level. I believe in TB, and think McClanahan is going to be a great find.
Pablo Lopez
One of, if not the most underrated pitcher in all of fantasy. 25 years old, sub 3 era, sub 3.5 in xERA, FIP, and xFIP, how is this not a top pitcher? Even the K/9 is playing above 9, in one of the best pitching development organizations in baseball. If there is one thing to pick at, it would be the low spin rate on his FB. Would be great if he could ride the FB up in the zone a little more effectively, but it really is exciting that he's found other ways to succeed. He does have a tendency to lean on 2 pitches more heavily than I'd like, but as the 3rd pitch comes around, I believe this success can sustain.
Alek Thomas
Alek Thomas does not get enough love in the fantasy community. In a stacked OF system, Thomas gets outshined at times by Carroll and previously KRob. Their loss is your gain! Thomas may not be a 30/30 player, but I could see 20/20 at peak, and he continues to succeed in every situation. The most encouraging thing I'm seeing right now is the over.200 ISO and speed maintaining. The K-rate is manageable, and the walk-rate is very solid. I know it's not a linear growth progression, but I love what I'm seeing here and this is a big BUY for me.
Hunter Greene
Greene flat-out dominated AA and was the talk of the town for the first month+ of the season. After the jump to AAA, it sure seemed like he'd be hitting the major league roster in short order.... checks AAA stats. While this isn't the ringing endorsement for a buy target, it's a great opportunity to get in while the price might be down. I'm sure you've heard this before, but you can't teach 100 mph, and the pitch mix can work for both-handedness. As long as the changeup comes along, he should play well. I think his MLB debut might be delayed, but he's coming and coming fast.