Who I'm Selling - 7/12/2021
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham is an interesting player. Power and speed in an excellent lineup have to be extremely valuable right? Exactly. What I think some miss is that the barrel rates, hard hit%, xBA, and average exit velo are all low. I love the elite plate approach, but I foresee the BA coming down, and don't see the SB's staying at a high pace with all the injuries. I wouldn't throw around the "injury-prone" tag, but it could sap some of the speed in his youth. If you can get top 40 value, I would certainly consider moving him for some pieces.
Austin Meadows
Another guy I like, but think the value is simply too high. Lets start with the good. Great plate approach with a high walk rate and has brought his K% back to a manageable rate. Power and counting starts are solid, and the power is playing well. Now for the not quite so good. He lacks the speed to really be in that top tier, along with a likely average draw. I don't see that rebounding all that much, given the whiff%, and low hard hit%. These actually aren't that concerning overall, but compared to others in his range, I think I'd rather cash this one out.
Ian Anderson
If Ian Anderson wasn't on the Braves, would he really be viewed as highly as he is right now? Lets do a quick exercise.... pull up his savant page and tell me what shade of blue catches your eye the most? Is it the red in fastball velo? I'm guessing it's the VERY low spin rates on his CB and FB. On the bright side, we don't have to worry about drops in spin rate, but it's less than optimal when looking for high upside pitchers. His surface stats are better than the advanced, but the advanced isn't all that bad. I view him as a 3/4 instead of the 2/3 or potential ace that some are casting him. If you can sell him on the surface stats, and the idea of him leading a rotation, this is a good time to sell.
Dylan Cease
Position swap premium. Gorman has as much power as any you'd ever want, but the hit tool scares me. Admittedly, I'm a sucker for high hit tools, but Gorman has a sub .800 OPS in every level except rookie ball. With his 2B work early in the spring, there was some buzz he could be up soon and could be a power outlet at a shallow position. I'd use that buzz to try to cash out while there's still time. I could see this flaming out and flame out quickly below the Mendoza line.
Nolan Gorman
This could bite me for as well as he's performed. The struggles have started in AAA, but I wouldn't necessarily think this is a full indictment of who he is. As awesome as he was at AA, Gorman still is a low hit tool guy, who's power was playing up. There is a very real possibility he lands at 2B, and his power makes him a viable option, but I just don't buy he's going to stick. From what I've seen, the K's aren't going away, and don't think he can maintain a BABIP that is going to float the poor average. Good time to sell after the excitement of a promotion.
Matthew Liberatore
Another Cardinal and I want to be clear,m no bias! I can remember back to twitter 2019 or 2020 I believe and the GIF that set the world on fire. That CB is still plus, but I don't think the rest of the mix is good enough to be a high-end starter. A question I've been asking myself is, "is it really worth rostering a pitching prospect if they can't be elite?" I don't think Liberatore can be elite, and view him as a 4 or maybe 3 at peak. Recent results in AAA have confirmed some of the concerns, but I'd be willing to bet he's A LOT better than those results speak to. Appearance in the futures game could raise his current stock, a good time to move.