The Injury Bug Bites Early
It seems like every year, there is a week in the NFL season that is completely demoralizing for fantasy owners on the injury front. Fortunately (or unfortunately if you already drafted), the first round came in the preseason this year. As far as injuries go, these might not be the most earth shattering players to go down, but most do have some fairly costly implications for fantasy owners.
Julian Edelman Done for the Year - One of the biggest injuries of the week struck the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots in the form of a top pass catcher. One of Brady’s favorite targets, Julian Edelman suffered a torn ACL in their 30-28 win over the Detroit Lions. After Edelman exited the game, it really seemed like Chris Hogan really stepped into the spotlight catching 4 balls for 70 yards and 2 TDs. Looking ahead for fantasy owners, Hogan might be a nice add for someone looking to replace Edelman, but the real winner in this situation is Cooks. In a high octane and crowded pass catching group, I expect Cooks to pick up much of the slack left behind by the Patriots slot WR. Before this injury, Cooks was a big question mark (in my mind) as to how big of a role he could really play alongside guys like Gronk, Edelman, and the Pat’s RBs in a Belichick offense. I could see Cooks elevating to a top 10 WR with this injury, with potential top 5 upside. The other player I think sees an uptick from this injury is James White. The Super Bowl hero just received an extension this off-season and is a favorite Target of Brady’s close to the line of scrimmage. I don’t think this pushes him into the top 20, but could be a great PPR flex option later in drafts.
Spencer Ware Done for the Year - This is becoming almost a yearly ordeal that the Chiefs are forced into a 2nd option at RB. Unfortunately, this is exactly what Andy Reid and the Chiefs will have to do coming into the 2017 season. With the torn PCL for Spencer Ware, that should promote Kareem Hunt into the starting role for the Chiefs. A player I’ve been hyping all preseason, Kareem Hunt has already drawn comparisons to Jamaal Charles after just 3 preseason games. That might be a bit of stretch for a player that hasn’t played an NFL down to this point in his career, but he definitely has the explosiveness to be a special player in the NFL. I don’t think it would be crazy to say that Hunt, in this situation, could definitely contend for the top rookie RB come season’s end. There have also been some rumblings of Charcandrick West being in-line for an expanded role, but the Chiefs have already shown little to no confidence in him in the past. Based on talent and opportunity, I think it would be fair to say Hunt could be competing to crack the top 10 of RBs. For comparison, I would take him over Lamar Miller given the choice. That being said, make sure you handcuff the 201 lb rookie.
AP’s NO Debut - In week 3 of the preseason, we finally got to see one of the NFL’s all-time great RB’s suit up for his new team. In his much anticipated debut, Peterson carried the ball 6 times for a total of 15 yards adding 1 catch for -1. While the numbers aren’t good, the performance itself was equally unimpressive. Everyone knows that Peterson is a physical freak of nature, but in terms of pure football ability, his age is catching up with him. Assuming Peterson is healthy for 16 games this season, it doesn’t appear to me that he’ll be a usable fantasy asset. Aside from Peterson’s rocky start, he doesn’t really seem to fit the offense in general. In Peterson’s prime, it didn’t really matter that he wasn’t much of a threat out of the backfield. With age catching up to him, and a poor NO defense, I can’t see many scenarios where he ever out touches Ingram. An injury to Ingram could change his outlook, but in PPR formats, I’d much prefer the combo of Ingram and Kamara. All that being said, reports out of Saints camp is that they “love” Peterson. I would imagine he’ll be a goal line option, but with Sean Payton’s history with fumblers, that could be short lived.
No Luck in Indy? - As we inch closer to the start of the NFL season, many fantasy owners find themselves eyeing the Colts franchise QB for all the wrong reasons. Going into drafts, we were well aware Luck was working his way back from an off-season shoulder surgery, but the outlook has been a little murky. With Luck’s prolonged absence from the practice field, I’ve heard everything from him potentially missing 1 game to 4. Even with the reports out of Indy looking like he’ll miss week 1, I think the fact he’s being drafted at 10 (82nd overall FantasyPros*) is borderline criminal. If you take the middle ground of the projected games missed, Luck plus 2 games of replacement level QB is likely still good enough to be top 10, if not top 5. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not drafting Luck in the top 7 rounds, but his rank among QBs is much lower where I believe he’ll finish. The other reason Luck missing a few games is easier to swallow is due to the sheer depth of the QB position. Just looking at the position itself, you could easily pair Luck with Palmer, Stafford, and Wentz to bridge the early season gap. To expand a little further, I think the fantasy implications of Luck missing time is actually more harmful to the rest of the offensive weapons. It’s easy to replace Luck if you know he’s out, but it’s hard to bench a guy like TY Hilton or Doyle with Luck sidelined.
Cameron Meredith Done for the Year - After a breakouts season catapulting him to the number 1 WR in Chicago, Meredith’s season will be cut short by an ACL tear. This might not be the major news fantasy players are heartbroken by, but it definitely has some implications for the offense as a whole. In a very disappointing passing game, Meredith seemed to be the only WR that could move the chains for the Bears. That being said, I don’t think any pass catcher for the Bears is really very intriguing at this point even after losing Meredith for the season. The issue with losing a steady WR in an offense in dire need of talent is, that it makes them extremely predictable. This brings me to the biggest loser (other than Meredith), Jordan Howard. Generally a consensus top 20 pick, Howard had an uphill battle from the very beginning. I think the surprisingly above average QB play so far is a positive for the Bears, but overall I don’t think it’ll be enough to stop the 8 man boxes. I will be dropping Howard in my ranks, but I don’t think I want any part of the Bears offense this season.