The Curious Case of Ezekiel Elliott
As many of you follow what is quickly becoming America’s next great soap opera, I wanted to dive a little deeper into the situation and provide some insight from a fantasy perspective (with some opinions). Like any good season of “Friends”, this suspension has been on and off more than Ross and Rachel. What many people are asking is, what should I do with Zeke? We talked about it in brief detail last week on the podcast, but I think the time for the holding pattern is over. Legal precedent to this point would point toward Zeke being granted a stay and playing the rest of the season. If you can convince someone in your league that is going to happen, by all means, trade him now. To this point in November, this case has been anything but based on precedent and is anyone’s guess how it will unfold. A little legal background…
Depending on whom you ask, this case isn’t really predicated on innocents, but fairness of the process in the initial suspension and arbitration. To the legal experts out there, I wholeheartedly apologize if I’m a little off base, I’m going off what I feel are reliable sources. To summarize, there has been only one judge in the process that has ruled there isn’t enough evidence in the case to grant a legal “stay,” allowing Zeke to play the rest of the season. This was the ruling most of you saw earlier this week that would have kept Zeke out until week 14. This ruling has since been overturned temporarily until the appeal is heard by the 2nd Circuit court. The key word in that sentence is “temporarily” since the court can rule on this as soon as next week. So why is this process taking so darn long? Here are a few bullets of the issues that have plagued the process to this point.
Ezekiel Elliott and his legal team were not allowed to cross examine his accuser. In a criminal trial, this is a right of the defendant. (Suspensions are NOT court proceedings, but the NFL is ruling on a personal matter as criminal.)
The NFLPA was not given access to the notes from the investigation in order to mount a defense.
The findings of the lead investigator and opinions were ignored in the process which questioned the credibility of the “victim” in this case.
Moving past the initial investigation, the NFL feels that it would be harmed by the suspension not going into effect since they believe there is enough evidence of domestic abuse.
The NFLPA believes this suspension will harm Zeke since it will permanently tarnish his reputation and believes they an investigation into the process should be performed.
Most recently, questions have come up regarding Judge Faillia’s husband’s law firm’s role in representing the NFL in the CBA negotiations and crafting the document. (She cited the CBA many times in her ruling.)
Whew, ok, now onto the fantasy aspect.
So what in the world should you do with Zeke until this is all ironed out? First and foremost, you are NOT dropping Zeke. Even if the suspension is upheld, he will be back for the final week of your fantasy playoffs. Granted you might not make it there if he doesn’t play, you can’t drop a player of his caliber if he could help you down the stretch. What I would do in this situation is try to grab the backups. So far on waivers, the trendy adds have been Morris and McFadden. I think Morris would still be my 1st priority, but I’ve also been grabbing Rod Smith as his “handcuff.” Currently Smith is 2nd on the depth chart and is viewed by many within the Cowboys organization as the only of the three that could be an every down back. As the weeks progress, if Morris doesn’t get it done on the ground, I think Smith could eat into his workload and even take over the job if he’s effective in the running game. As a whole, this backfield is going to start off messy (assuming a Zeke suspension this season), but I think Smith has the most upside. For you non-Zeke owners out there, I would be looking to grab Morris or Smith if you can. If you somehow are able to get Morris, I would most likely be looking to trade him. Right now the suspension is about 50/50 depending on who you ask, and if you can get a starting caliber player for your roster, I’d call that a win.
Now the big question….. Should you trade Zeke? Last week we said “no,” since there was presumed to be a high likelihood you’d have him for the rest of the season. That narrative has since changed after the recent rulings. If you are able to trade Zeke, for a high end RB2, high end WR2, do so by all means. Your ability to hang onto a player like Zeke comes down to roster construction. Are you 7-1 and have a serviceable player that can fill-in while Zeke is suspended? Stash him. What would be better than to roll out an angry Ezekiel Elliott with fresh legs in the fantasy playoffs? On the flip side of that, if you are 4-4 hanging on by a thread in the playoff hunt, I think it’s time to finally sell. In the end, if you’re able to get someone like Aaron Jones, Doug Martin, Jerick McKinnon or better, that’s a good deal. If the Zeke suspension does come down, you’re season will likely be over. The way you need to look at this situation is at a worst case scenario without Zeke, where do I see my team at the end of the season. If that isn’t the fantasy championship, you’re likely trying to get what value you can out of him. Most teams will see more value in terms of trade, than on-field production if the suspension is upheld.
There really isn’t a defined timeline of when things unfold in the legal system, but it’s very possible and likely we get a ruling next week on that. If you’re a contender, start trying to get Zeke on the cheap. You might find a panicked owner that is looking to get anything he/she can. If so, maybe try a 2 for 1 that will give them 2 low end starters that aren’t integral to your team. At this point in the process, all bets are off! You need to do what is best for your team and your success moving forward. This is why I ALWAYS own my handcuffs if I can.