Manny Machado Sweepstakes
If I’m the Orioles right now, looking at my system and into the future, what do I want to get for a Super Star leaving in 4 months? Based on reports from across the league, it seems like a deal will get done sooner rather than later, but how much can Baltimore really ask for? Yes, Machado is a superb bat and has shown as much this season slashing .313/.382/.560/.943, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired from the SS position. As a General Manager, I think the first question you always need to ask in this situation is how far away are we from competing? As it stands right now, call me crazy, but the Orioles are at least 2-3 years from competing and maybe closer to 5 with the way their division/the AL in general is shaping up. So what are they really looking for in return?
Based on recent reports, the Orioles are in search of close to MLB ready pitching and left side infielders. This absolutely makes sense because the general outlook on their system is fairly underwhelming. Currently the Orioles have exactly 1 top 100 prospect (#80) at 3B who has shown well in AA. That being said, you don’t find another infielder in their system until #16, a 2017 2nd round pick still very raw in talent. When it comes to pitching, they definitely have a decent stock of arms at the top of their system, but not many looking to make an impact at the major league level in the next two seasons. All of this capped by the fact Baltimore (as of March) ranked 23rd and listed as a “so-so” system by minorleagueball.com. They’ve definitely added some good pieces through the draft, adding a HS pitcher at #11 and a SS at #37. Not graded as great picks based on prospect rank, but still noticeable improvements for a system desperate for talent.
So who are the major players?
Right now, it’s being reported that the teams most seriously interested are the Dodgers, Brewers, and Indians with the Diamondbacks not far behind. There is another AL team being reported to have interest, but no names have materialized recently. All of these teams have strong farm systems with the exception of Arizona and could really add some depth to Baltimore’s minor league ranks. Going off of what I’ve seen most recently, the two teams I want to focus on are LA and Milwaukee. Both of these teams have big middle infield needs and have been noted to be making the “Strongest plays” for the Orioles SS.
LA Dodgers:
As we all know, the supremely talented and big spending Dodgers would have no problem taking on Machado’s salary for the remainder of 2018 and absolutely have the prospect list to blow most other suitors out of the water. To this point, the names I’ve seen reported floating out there for Machado are Ruiz (Dodgers #2, MLB #44 Not likely), Verdugo (Dodgers #1, MLB #27), and Diaz (Dodgers #4, MLB #85). All extremely coveted prospects, but no exactly what the reports would show the Orioles want. As an outsider, it would seem more likely the Orioles would be looking for one of those in addition to White (Dodgers #3, MLB #83), Santana (Dodgers #5, MLB #97) or Alvarez (Dodgers #8). Based on sheer spending power, it would be easy to recoup the loss of those players for the Dodgers, but it doesn’t leave the most “intriguing” package based on initial reports of what the Orioles are looking for. I do have to note that with the potential departure of Adam Jones at seasons end, these OF prospects could be an intriguing center piece.
Milwaukee Brewers:
A somewhat surprising name that has shot to the forefront of the conversation is the Brewers. A farm system that just has been on the rise in recent years boasts a lot of what Baltimore would be looking to acquire. Based what their GM David Stearns has said in the past, I would find it very hard to believe they go “all in” on this deal, meaning 2+ top 5 prospects in their system. That being said, the names I’ve heard floated around recently are Hiura (Brewers #1, MLB #30 Unlikely), Burnes (Brewers #2, MLB #56), Ortiz (Brewers #4), Broxton (Not prospect eligible), Arcia (Not prospect Eligible) and Phillips (Brewers #5). This crop of players boasts a few MLB ready players, Broxton, Burnes, Arcia, and Phillips all having seen major league action. Based on the Orioles wants, a likely deal would include a mixture of Burnes, Ortiz and/or Arcia, but no reports linking specific players have been released. Pure speculation, but I would keep an eye on the Brewers trying to add names like Phillips, Broxton, or Santana, to a deal centered around Ortiz and maybe Arcia to attempt to retain top pitching prospect Burnes (Recently called up to major league team).
At this point, it’s anyone’s guess who will be the front runner for acquiring Machado, but it seems a little like a game of chicken the Orioles are playing. They’re obviously looking for a big haul for their All-Star slugger, but neither team is really in “desperate need” of his services. Without receiving any compensation when he likely walks at seasons end, it does complicate things for a small market team like the Brewers and even a team like the Dodgers who will be returning one of the game’s (Corey Seager) best at the same position next year. If I was placing a bet today, I’d be betting on the Dodgers adding his services, but at a pricy haul. Buckle up, this should be a fun one to watch!